ACCELERATING the global decline in tobacco smoking could significantly increase life expectancy and prevent millions of premature deaths by 2050, according to new research. The study, led by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Tobacco Forecasting Collaborators, highlighted that reducing smoking rates to 5% globally could add an additional year of life expectancy for men and prevent 876 million years of life lost.
Smoking is the leading behavioural risk factor for mortality globally, accounting for more than 175 million deaths and nearly 4.30 billion years of life lost from 1990 to 2021. The researchers forecasted that under current trends, global life expectancy is expected to rise from 73.6 years in 2022 to 78.3 years by 2050. However, more aggressive tobacco control policies could increase this by another year in males and up to 0.4 years in females.
The study modeled three future scenarios: continuation of current trends, reduction of smoking to 5%, and total elimination of smoking by 2023. The greatest life expectancy gains were projected in East and Central Asia, with males gaining up to 1.8 years of life in some regions. North America also stands to gain significantly from aggressive tobacco control measures. In North America, the study suggests that reducing smoking rates could lead to meaningful increases in life expectancy. Currently, smoking prevalence in the United States is around 14% for men and 12% for women. If these rates decline to the targeted 5% by 2050, it is projected that men could gain up to 1.8 years of life, while women may gain around 0.4 years. These gains would contribute to raising life expectancy in the U.S. to approximately 81.1 years for men and 85.1 years for women.
Despite the encouraging findings, the authors note that their analysis did not include the potential benefits of reducing second-hand smoke exposure or account for newer tobacco alternatives like e-cigarettes. They stress that scaling up proven interventions could accelerate progress toward ending the global smoking epidemic.
Reference: GBD 2021 Tobacco Forecasting Collaborators. Forecasting the effects of smoking prevalence scenarios on years of life lost and life expectancy from 2022 to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. 2024;9(20):e729-e744.
Anaya Malik | AMJ
