A LARGE-scale study suggests that children with above-average body mass index (BMI) trajectories are at increased risk of developing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) later in life.
Researchers analysed data from 276,747 children (137,493 girls) born between 1930–1982, who had multiple height and weight measurements recorded between the ages of 6–15 years from the Copenhagen School Health Records Register. Using latent class trajectory modelling, they identified five distinct BMI patterns: below-average, average, above-average, overweight, and obesity. The children were then followed in national healthcare registers from 1977–2022, with COPD diagnoses recorded from age 40 onwards. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% CIs were calculated separately for men and women using Cox proportional hazard regression analyses.
During follow-up, 18,227 women and 15,789 men were diagnosed with COPD. Women with above-average childhood BMI had a 10% higher risk of COPD (HR=1.10; 95% CI: 1.06-1.15), while those classified as overweight or obese had a 26% (HR=1.26; 95% CI: 1.20-1.33) and 65% (HR=1.65; 95% CI: 1.50-1.83) higher risk, respectively. Men showed similar patterns. Interestingly, women with a below-average BMI trajectory had a 9% lower risk of COPD (HR=0.91; 95% CI: 0.87-0.95), though no significant reduction was found for men.
These findings suggest that childhood BMI plays a key role in COPD risk later in life, highlighting the importance of early-life interventions to mitigate future respiratory disease.
Reference
Richter F et al. Childhood body mass index trajectories above average are associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Abstract 38. European Congress on Obesity 2025, 11-14 May 2025.
