HANTAVIRUS, a deadly rodent-borne virus responsible for hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), has long posed diagnostic and prognostic challenges. A new study from central China introduces the EASTAR nomogram, a predictive model designed to improve clinical outcomes by identifying high-risk patients early.
The retrospective study, conducted across four hospitals in Hubei Province, examined 551 serologically confirmed HFRS cases. Researchers identified six key predictors of 30-day mortality, forming the basis of the EASTAR risk assessment model:
Elevated red blood cell count (RBC ≥ 4.87 ×10¹²/L)
Age ≥ 61 years
qSOFA score ≥ 2
Overlap of two disease stages (fever and hypotensive, or hypotensive and oliguria)
Overlap of three disease stages (fever, hypotensive, and oliguria)
Elevated aspartate aminotransferase (AST ≥ 161 IU/L)
The EASTAR (Erythrocyte, Age, qSOFA, Stage Overlap, AST, Risk Score) model demonstrated high predictive accuracy, with an AUC of 0.92 in the training cohort and 0.91 in the validation cohort. These results highlight its effectiveness in distinguishing between low-, medium-, and high-risk patients.
By incorporating EASTAR into clinical practice, physicians can make faster, evidence-based decisions about ICU admissions and treatment plans, ultimately improving survival rates. The study also emphasizes the seasonal patterns of HFRS, with infection peaks occurring between May–July and November–January, reinforcing the need for heightened clinical vigilance during these periods.
As hantavirus infections continue to threaten global health, EASTAR offers a crucial tool for frontline clinicians managing this complex disease. Further studies will be needed to validate its application in diverse healthcare settings.
Reference: Ma Ke et al. Clinical Characteristics and a Novel Prediction Nomogram (EASTAR) for Patients with Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome: A Multicenter Retrospective Study. Trop Med Infect Dis. 2025;10(2):51.
Anaya Malik | AMJ
