RESEARCHERS at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University have developed a convenient nomogram to predict preoperative microvascular invasion (MVI) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The study, which included data from patients who underwent surgical resection for HCC between June 2018 and June 2023, aimed to create a tool that could aid clinicians in identifying those at higher risk for MVI before surgery.
The researchers conducted univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses to identify significant risk factors for MVI. They found that tumour diameter (≥ 5 cm), BCLC stage, platelet count (PLT > 127.50 × 109/L), aspartate aminotransferase (AST > 29.50 U/L), and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP > 10.07 ng/ml) were independent preoperative risk factors for MVI. These variables were incorporated into the nomogram, which showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.69, indicating good accuracy in predicting MVI.
Further analysis revealed that the nomogram’s predictions closely matched actual MVI outcomes, with a p-value of 0.947. Additionally, decision curve analysis indicated that the model provides significant clinical benefit when the threshold probability is greater than 20%. High platelet counts were found to be strongly associated with MVI, suggesting their potential as a key biomarker in HCC.
This nomogram offers a simple and effective method for clinicians to predict MVI and personalise treatment plans, improving outcomes for HCC patients.
Helena Bradbury, EMJ
Reference
Zheng W et al. Development and clinical validation of a novel platelet count-based nomogram for predicting microvascular invasion in HCC. Scientific Reports. 2025; doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-88343-3.
