Parkinson’s Disease Cases Predicted to Double by 2050: Global Study

THE GLOBAL prevalence of Parkinson’s disease is projected to more than double by 2050, reaching 25.2 million cases, with population ageing identified as the primary driver of this increase.

Parkinson’s disease is a progressive neurological disorder that significantly impacts individuals, families, and healthcare systems worldwide. Understanding its future prevalence and contributing factors is essential for planning public health strategies and allocating resources. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, researchers modelled the global, regional, and national prevalence of Parkinson’s disease to 2050, identifying key demographic and socio-economic drivers of this trend.

The study predicts a 112% increase in Parkinson’s disease cases globally between 2021 and 2050, rising from 11.9 million to 25.2 million cases (95% uncertainty interval: 21.7 to 30.1 million). Population ageing is expected to account for 89% of this growth, followed by population growth (20%) and changes in prevalence (3%). The global prevalence is forecasted to reach 267 cases per 100,000 people in 2050, a significant rise of 76% from 2021. Age-standardised prevalence is also projected to increase by 55%, from 216 per 100,000 in 2021 to 281 per 100,000 in 2050. The greatest increases will occur in countries with middle Socio-demographic Index scores, where all-age prevalence is expected to rise by 144%. East Asia will have the highest number of cases (10.9 million), while western Sub-Saharan Africa will experience the largest relative increase (292%). Men are projected to have a higher age-standardised prevalence than women, with the male-to-female ratio increasing from 1.46 in 2021 to 1.64 in 2050.

These findings highlight the growing public health challenge posed by Parkinson’s disease as populations age worldwide. For clinical practice and healthcare policy, these projections emphasise the need for increased investment in research, early detection programmes, and accessible treatment options. Policymakers must prioritise resource allocation for regions expected to see the highest increases in prevalence, particularly middle-income countries and areas with limited healthcare infrastructure. Future research should focus on modifiable risk factors and interventions that could mitigate the rising burden of Parkinson’s disease globally.

Katrina Thornber, EMJ

Reference

Su D et al. Projections for prevalence of Parkinson’s disease and its driving factors in 195 countries and territories to 2050: modelling study of Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. BMJ. 2025;388:e080952