By 2050, One in Two Adults Will Be Overweight or Obese

THE PREVALENCE of overweight and obesity has risen worldwide over the past three decades, and projections indicate that, without urgent intervention, more than half of the global adult population will be affected by 2050. 

Using methodology from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, researchers analysed data from 204 countries and territories, examining trends from 1990–2021 and forecasting future trajectories to 2050. They incorporated 1,350 data sources, including survey microdata and published literature, adjusting for self-report bias. A spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression model was employed to enhance the comparability of trends across time and geography, while forecasts were informed by the Socio-demographic Index and historical rates of change. 

Between 1990–2021, overweight and obesity prevalence increased globally, regionally, and nationally. In 2021, an estimated 1.00 billion (95% UI 0.989–1.01) adult males and 1.11 billion (1.10–1.12) adult females had overweight or obesity. The highest absolute numbers were found in China (402 million), India (180 million), and the USA (172 million). Age-standardised prevalence exceeded 80% in parts of Oceania, North Africa, and the Middle East, where obesity rates have surged most rapidly. Compared to 1990, global obesity prevalence rose by 155.1% (149.8–160.3) in males and 104.9% (100.9–108.8) in females.  

If current trends persist, the number of affected adults will rise to 3.80 billion (3.39–4.04) by 2050, with sub-Saharan Africa seeing a 254.8% (234.4–269.5) increase. Nigeria, projected to have 141 million adults with overweight and obesity by 2050, is expected to become the fourth most affected country. 

No country has successfully reversed the rising trend, and without urgent policy changes, the burden of obesity-related diseases will escalate, particularly in Asia and Africa. A proactive and aggressive public health response is imperative to mitigate the far-reaching consequences of this crisis. 

Ada Enesco, EMJ 

Reference 

Ng M et al. Global, regional, and national prevalence of adult overweight and obesity, 1990–2021, with forecasts to 2050: a forecasting study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet. 2025; DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(25)00355-1.