NEW research reveals shifting patterns in lung cancer mortality, with declining smoking rates offset by rising deaths linked to air pollution. A global analysis of Trachea, Bronchus, and Lung (TBL) Cancer mortality trends from 1990–2019 highlights evolving risk factors, particularly in the ten most populated countries.
The study, using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, found that while overall lung cancer mortality has declined by 8% globally, sex-based disparities persist. Male mortality has decreased, but female mortality has risen. Tobacco remains the leading contributor, but deaths linked to air pollution, especially from ambient particulate matter (PM), are growing in certain regions.
China and Indonesia saw an increase in tobacco-related lung cancer deaths, despite a global decline. Air pollution-associated mortality also rose in China, India, Pakistan, and Nigeria. In particular, deaths linked to ambient PM increased by 25% worldwide, while those associated with household air pollution dropped by 62%. China had the highest PM-related lung cancer mortality in 2019, at 8.8 per 100,000 people, twice the global average.
Asbestos exposure, another major risk factor, showed an overall decline, with associated mortality rates dropping from 8.91 per 100,000 to 6.0 per 100,000. However, the USA maintained asbestos-related lung cancer mortality rates that were consistently twice the global average throughout the study period.
While tobacco control measures have shown success, increasing ambient PM pollution is a key risk factor for lung cancer. Clinicians and policymakers must prioritise preventive services, public health awareness, and stronger regulations on air pollution to curb rising lung cancer deaths. Addressing environmental risk factors will be crucial in shaping the future of lung cancer prevention.
Ada Enesco, EMJ
Reference
Chinmay TJ et al. Evolving trends in lung cancer risk factors in the ten most populous countries: an analysis of data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. eClinicalMedicine. 2025;79:103033.
